CAVES
Coordinator
Prof. Scott Moss, Center for Policy Modelling, UK
Participants
- Sweden: Stockholm Environmental Institute
- Germany: Universitat Kassel
- Poland: Politechnika Wroclawska
- Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- UK: Macaulay Land Use Research Institute
- Poland: Uniwersytet Wroclawski
Description
Complexity science is revealing the function and behaviour of complex networks in the real world, including information-technology networks, power grids and transport networks. The benefits of this deeper understanding are only slowly being felt by policy-makers, with those working with financial markets slightly ahead.The CAVES project provides a link between complexity science and social policy.
The behaviour of a complex network emerges through the interaction of individual quasi-autonomous software programs called agents. The agents – based models in land-use typically represent stakeholders such as farmers and industrial decision-makers. A complex network changes in response to internal stress or external shock. In a resilient network, land use will remain largely unchanged as a consequence of this, although dramatic changes in land use may occur in less resilient networks.
The scientific aim of the CAVES project is to identify reasons why some complex networks are more resilient. Models are being constructed retrospectively for each case study, using datasets of land use over time to determine the impact of previous episodes of stress and shock. The models are then run forwards in time, so that past evidence provides the basis for exploring possible impacts of future shocks.